When it comes to trade, investment and infrastructure development, China should not be the only game in town. Figure 3 highlights the influenced areas. The islands are important, however, for strategic and political reasons. In other words, his primary concern is that the rivalry over the South China Sea could derail Beijing's strong strategic focus on the Taiwan issue.25 Academic perspectives on the South China Sea are important and may actually be quite influential. by Geoffrey Hartman Walter Lohman hasdescribedCobra Gold as an achievement that has proved useful for military missions, such as joint patrols of vital sea lanes, and noncombat missions, such as disaster relief following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Burma.. Check out the linked article on the Belt and road initiative now. More than half of the worlds fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. Not taking a position on sovereignty allows the United States to flexibly intervene in the South China Sea to defend its interests and international rules and norms, while undercutting Chinese attempts to paint U.S. actions as a threat to Beijings sovereignty. The South China Sea is one such essential waterway, made more important by the value of the sea's fisheries and subsea resources such as natural gas. Report Cooperation on areas of shared interest is important not only to the United States, but also to China. U.S. access to the South China Sea is coming under increasing threat as Chinese power increases, but can be preserved if the United States maintains a sufficient military advantage over China. The area marked with a blue line is based on the UNCLOS 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) relating to each countrys claims and the islands marked in green are the ones over which sovereignty is disputed. The South China Sea has become important to the US because of China's challenge to the liberal rules-based order that America has promoted since the Pacific war. More importantly, it also covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. The United States has been largely successful at preserving its own freedom of action and deterring outright Chinese aggression in the South China Sea through routine presence operations. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the South China Sea. China has shown the most considerable increase in projection of power from all the states surrounding the SCS. As maritime security such as safety and freedom of . The U.S.-Thai relationship has suffered since the 2006 coup that overthrew Thaksin Shinawatra and especially since the latest coup, which saw the military take control in 2014 and stubbornly cling to power. Islands in the South China Sea The islands of the South China Sea can be grouped into two island chains. 1982 More than 160 nations conclude the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, an international treaty setting out the framework governing the oceans and their uses. In addition, this thesis intends to propose a solution to the dispute by pulling from a variety of sources. India is training crews for Vietnams new Kilo-class submarines and will sell Vietnam BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles. As . The United States has several enduring advantages that make regional states continue to seek it out as the security partner of choice, including the worlds best military, high favorability ratings in most local populations, and a less threatening foreign policy than that of China. South China Sea or even some part of its strategically significant zones will provide the sovereign nation state significant seat in global trade agreements. Almost all the East Asian countries are dependent on this sea. African community leaders take home lessons from U.S. The "Implementing the Strategic Action Programme for the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand" (SCS SAP Project) completed its Inception Phase with the 1st Steering Committee Meeting held online on the 29 and 30 of June, 2021 with official representatives from Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam and the UNEP Task Manager for the project, with the support of . That claim remained shrouded in a calculated fog of ambiguity until 2010 when Secretary of State Clinton addressed the status of the South China Sea and its sea-lanes at a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi. This article examines Chinas behaviour in the South China Sea disputes through the lens of its strategy for managing its claims. Certainly, the ongoing reform process and the opening of relations with the United States amount to a strategic setback for Chinas position in the region. Brunei's statement seems to present a unified front with the Philippines and Vietnam, in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2021, where ASEAN and China hope to finalise the formulation of the code of conduct to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. Marcos Jr. had previously said his country would pursue oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea even without a deal with China, which claims almost all of the 1.3 million square mile South . Hanoi will move cautiously and such access may be limited to the purposes of logistical support for the time being. China, however, must now balance its continental concerns, which remain complex, against its new dependence on the maritime domain. These women are creating climate solutions, One year later: Democracy stands in Ukraine. South China Sea and possible options. In recent years, Chinas inventive engineering feats have allowed it to create more than 3,200 acres of new land in the South China Sea. Without the southern American presence, Chinese forces could more easily divide American forces east and west in the event of a crisis, more easily defend territorial claims or intimidate Malaysia and Indonesia, and more easily threaten maritime and air traffic crisscrossing the South China Sea. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long. In 1995, the Philippines discovered that China had occupied and militarized an atoll (Mischief Reef) well within the Philippines EEZ and within maritime territory claimed by Manila. The Obama administration has made modest gains in this regard, but it will be up for to the next president to seize that opportunity and ensure that Southeast Asias future is prosperous, peaceful and free. In April, Australian Defence Force personnel joined the U.S.-Philippines Balikatan maneuvers, which included an amphibious landing exercise. The strategic importance of the South China Sea is mainly due to its geographical location as the area is one of world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. Allied efforts to support U.S. force posture in the region will remain vital, but the United States should also expect allies to make greater contributions in responding to Chinese coercion. The primary challenge to American regional predominance came from Maoist China first through the Korean War and then via communist insurgencies throughout Southeast Asia culminating in the Vietnam War (1963-75). The diplomatic tempest at the ARF came when U.S. security attention was preoccupied with ongoing military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the global counterterrorism campaign with Osama bin Laden still at large. When China moved a massive oilrig, theHaiyang Shiyou 981, into Vietnams exclusive economic zone in 2014, Vietnam had limited options to respond, at either the low end or the high. The strategic importance of the SCS is mainly due to its geographical location, as the area is one of the worlds busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. TheSouth China Seais one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. In a meeting attended by the foreign ministers of 26 nations from the broader region, Clinton simply asserted that the South China Sea was subject to multiple territorial claims and a multinational mechanism should be established to find a peaceful diplomatic solution. China's actions in the SCSincluding extensive . The Korean War produced formal defense treaties with each of these countries plus a new, permanent military presence in South Korea. 1994 The Convention on the Law of the Sea goes into effect. That redundancy will grant the United States flexibility in a couple of ways. As the pivot of global economy continues to move east it is highly likely that 21st century geopolitics will continue to revolve around Asia and the SCS. February 27, 2023. - Interview with Ana Krstinovska, Russia's Growing Influence in the Middle East: an interview with Alexander Hoffmann, Serbia's Uneasy Balance Between Moscow and the EU: an interview with Suzana Grubjesic, Gulf States' Economic Momentum: an interview with Omar Al-Ubaydli, Prospects for Turkey-EU Relations Amid Tensions, Need to Cooperate and Lack of Trust: an interview with Nilgn Arsan Eralp, Germany's Shifting Stance in the Greek-Turkish Dispute: an interview with Ioannis P. Sotiropoulos, Bulgaria's Economic Perspectives amid Political Uncertainty and Challenges, Saudi Arabia's Reforms, Relations with the United States, and Choice of New Allies: an interview with David H. Rundell, Putin's Visit to Tehran: Results and Prospects, The Afghan Taliban Regime Amid Conflicting International Interests, The Resurgent Terrorist Threat in Pakistan: an interview with Tariq Parvez, The Complicated Upswing in U.S.-Pakistan Relations: an interview with Husain Haqqani, Pakistan-CARs ties: The Geo-Economic Vision, Neo-Petrodollar Romance: Implications and Options for Pakistan, India's Strategic Autonomy - Interview with Ambassador Rtn. The area includes several hundred small islands, rocks, and reefs, with the majority located in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains. Australia and Vietnam established a Comprehensive Partnership in 2009 and agreed to expand it in 2015. The strategic importance of the South China Sea cannot be overstated. It will always have an eye on the need to protect itself against attack from the sea, but there's much more to China's vulnerability than potential invasion or bombardment. The region also is the subject of more than a dozen overlapping and interconnected disputes over who is in charge of the various islands, rocks, shoals and reefs scattered throughout the South China Sea waters. No other state in the region can match this increase in projection and rival China due to the economic differences. The United States needs to maintain a difficult balancing act, supporting the democratic aspirations of the Thai people while remaining a security and economic partner of choice for the elites and armed forces. Sun Tzu Explains China's Shaping Operations in the South China Sea. Chinas claims over the legal status and maritime rights of the 9 dash line remain ambiguous and outside of UN recognised EEZ claims. Read more, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NWWashington, DC 20004-3027, 2023 The Wilson Center. Diplomatic, informational, legal, and economic responses are currently underrepresented in U.S. China policy, and their incorporation into the policy toolkit will be important for successfully dissuading China over the long-term. At the economic front, it is estimated that an annual global trade of $5.3 trillion passes through the SCS. It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. With the National League for Democracy now in power in Naypyidaw, China cannot rely on Burma as an automatic ally. While consistency in U.S. messaging and policy execution is important, it should be balanced by carefully calculated unpredictability in operations and tactics to prevent Beijing from becoming overly confident in its ability to anticipate U.S. reactions. The Asia Program promotes policy debate and intellectual discussions on U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific as well as political, economic, security, and social issues relating to the worlds most populous and economically dynamic region. The United States will continue to stand with our allies and partners to uphold the order that we helped build, Pencesaid. multifaceted fiscal and strategic benefits, acting as a magnet for the regional as well as . In addition, it has proved oil and gas reserves, so the sovereignty of the disputed islands involves legal rights to exploit its resources. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake., The U.S.-Thai alliance has also served as a platform for important training exercises. Miguel . If full democratization is her goal, there is no foreign partner more important than Washington for achieving it. The strategic value of the alliance remains high, according to theCongressional Research Service: *** U.S. This puts more pressure on Washington to intervene and U.S. allies and partners in Asia are watching carefully and drawing conclusions about U.S. commitment and staying power in the region. Thailand has little reason to jettison the alliance, but in the near term the United States may need to accept more distant ties and a closer Thai-Chinese relationship. Importantly, the Air Forces presence on Luzon, perhaps to be followed by regular naval rotations in Subic Bay, will put the United States in a better position to quickly seal up the Luzon Strait, which links the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. China's plan for populating the South China Sea was launched in 2012 when "Sansha City", the administrative centre for all Chinese-claimed features in the South China Sea on Woody Island in the . To that end, the region is . The Chinese recently built an island in the South China Sea, apparently as a potential airbase. Journals and books. The South China Sea is the gateway to access to the world ocean, the nexus for navigation as well as a security fence for several littoral states. Since 2009, China has growingly asserted its influence over the SCS by enforcing an annual fishing ban, conducting regular maritime patrols, undertaking scientific surveys and conducting military exercises in the disputed islands and waters. This has continued in to the present day. or join us on Facebook. Nevertheless, Beijing had taken its first overt step to control the South China Sea. Conservation values protection of marine habitat against wanton, unnecessary despoliation are also essential. And thus a new strategic map of Asia begins to emerge. . In 1989 troops from the Peoples Liberation Army entered Tiananmen Square and terminated the student-led democracy demonstrations and hundreds died. The South China Sea (SCS) consists of over 200 tiny islands, reefs, shoals, atolls and sandbanks grouped in to 3 archipelagos the Spratlys, the Paracels and the Pratas Macclesfield Bank and Scarborough Shoal. The third will assess the policies/strategies currently employed by the United States in this arena as well as other plausible options. Moving forward, freedom of navigation and routine presence operations should be executed on a regular basis to demonstrate U.S. resolve to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows. 1. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. These same sea-lanes are a vital military artery as the U.S. The reaction of the Chinese Foreign Minister was incendiary and revealing. China is working hard to bring under its control the water, islands, rocks and reefs that sit within its imaginary nine-dash line. China has adopted an increasingly assertive posture towards its own claims by elevating it to a core interest, strengthening its fishery law enforcement and building civilian and military facilities in the disputed islands and waters. According to the U.S. State Department, it has been estimated that China is effectively blocking the development of $2.5 trillion worth of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. The South China Sea is not only economically important for Malaysia as a maritime nation, but it is also as important from the perspective of national security. Indeed, when push came to shove, China would force its bilateral partners to choose between economic prosperity on the one hand and security and even sovereignty on the other. The 2022 Philippine Election: Trouble for Democracy and Foreign Relations Ahead? With a maturing coast guard, navy and air force, Vietnam will become an increasingly prickly foe. As building of military facilities continued in 2015, the US explicitly announced its opposition to these constructions and tasked surveillance assets to conduct over flights in the SCS and significantly raised tensions. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. In . These straws-in-the-wind gained strategic context because the PRC had long published official maps showing a boundary encompassing almost the entire South China Sea the nine-dash line.. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and. Aung San Suu Kyi has no interest in antagonizing Chinawhich shares a border with Burma and is a major source of foreign investmentbut nor can she afford to alienate the United States or India. Yet, due to Turkey's strategic importance, the US cannot afford to affront Mr. Erdogan, who carries a peculiar . A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. All Rights Reserved. This concept of regional order links tightly to a broader set of interests, values, and institutions embodied in the post-World War II international system a system that reflects U.S. values, U.S. leadership and is consonant with U.S. interests. The new administration should provide authoritative explanations of these operations and not alter their schedule in response to Chinese pressure. To understand the statement we have to have a particular knowledge over the issue and have to look over the geopolitical and strategic importance of South China Sea. More than 50% of world trade passes. Thanks to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), American power projection capabilities will be regularly present in the Philippines for the first time since the early 1990s. It is a rich source of hydrocarbons and natural resources. The two major power of the world i.e. Even if Beijings island-building campaign succeeds in turning the South China Sea into a Chinese lake, it will be one in which Chinese forces are constantly monitored and from which they can only depart with implicit American acquiescence. America has formal defense/security alliances with five Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia. Now, the two militaries will increasingly exercise and train across a broad spectrum of military operations, from the low end to the high. The South China Sea contains some of the world's most important shipping lanes. Select Accept to consent or Reject to decline non-essential cookies for this use. The U.S. As the new administration sets out to revamp U.S. strategy in the South China Sea, it should keep the following guidelines in mind: Although Chinese cooperation is necessary to address some regional and global issuessuch as North Koreas belligerent behavior and climate changethe United States should not be held hostage by concerns that a more robust deterrence strategy will thwart bilateral cooperation. Therefore, the SCS has geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the energy and economic security of China and East Asian countries; but also for the USA as $1.2 trillion of its trade moves through the waters. Several countries in the area, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, make overlapping sovereignty claims over the islands and maritime rights in the SCS. Access to all three is now in doubt. For example, targeted sanctions on Chinese companies involved in destabilizing activities could be considered. Its strategic economic importance and its geographic location at the confluence of several spheres of influence have rendered it one of the "world's hotspots". The U.S. militarys enhanced ability to loiter in and over the South China Sea, moreover, will facilitate more effective efforts to track Chinese submarines sailing from the PLANs underground naval base on Hainan island. Thats why the United States has urged countries to resolve maritime claim disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law. Currently, President Xi Jinping makes frequent references to Chinas possession of the South China Sea since ancient times an assertion that lacks any validity historically or legally. That included nearly 40 percent of Chinas total trade and 90 percent of petroleum imports by China, Japan, and South Korea and nearly 6 percent of total U.S. trade. In 2012, Vietnam and the Philippines sought to consolidate their partnership and alliance with the US in order to enhance their strategic position over SCS disputes.
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